November 7, 2009: Breeders’ Cup Saturday. The 50-foot Woman joins the pantheon of greats while setting a forest fire of discussion regarding Horse of the Year. Rachel or Zenyatta?

November 6, 2009: Breeders’ Cup Friday.

#2 Life Is Sweet with: #1 Mine That Bird, $324; #2 Colonel John, $173; #3 Summer Bird, $166; #4 Zenyatta, $99; #5 Twice Over, $369; #6 Richard’s Kid, $164; #7 Gio Ponti, $176; #8 Einstein, $143; #9 Girolamo, $543; #10 Rip Van Winkle, $168; #11 Regal Ransom, $623; #12 Quality Road, $269; #13 Awesome Gem, $769

Total Double pool: $403,316

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November 5, 2009: Munick gets up close with Zenyatta and her connections.

Jump to a wager or our analysts’ picks: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 / Pick 4 / Picks

EXACTA
Plays from Dana Byerly

Friday, $2 Exacta Key or Box ($6-12), Race 8

Ladies’ Classic: #1 Careless Jewel over #6 Cocoa Beach, #4 Lethal Heat, and #5 Proviso. OR, if you’re leery of Careless Jewel (due for a clunker, distance, surface, etc.) box #6 Cocoa Beach, #4 Lethal Heat, and #5 Proviso.

In the unlikely event that her ML odds stay, Careless Jewel at 2-1 is a good value, but there are are couple of other interesting possibilities. Cocoa Beach is coming into form at just the right time and she’s working great, impressing Mike Welsch with her 5F work in 59.62.

Another filly of interest is local Lethal Heat, now only running on Friday! She seems to be knocking on the door with two game performances at Santa Anita. Lethal Heat and Cocoa Beach ran second and third to Zenyatta in the Ladies Secret and looked great in the stretch. Don’t be surprised to see this one hit the board.

I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Proviso, Mushka and Rainbow View as possibilities. I’m going with the locally prepped angle but I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these in the money. Of the three of them I’m most interested in Proviso, particularly if she stays around her ML odds of 8-1. This pace scenario seems likely to be similar to the Spinster, which will suit her well.

Saturday, $2 Exacta Key or Box ($6-12), Race 6

Mile: #11 Goldikova over #7 Ferneley, #5 Karelian, and #1 Court Vision. OR, if you really want to live a little for approximately a minute and half and $12, box #7 Ferneley, #5 Karelian, and #1 Court Vision.

There’s no reason to think Golidkova can’t repeat in the Mile, but that doesn’t mean you can’t find some value. Ferneley was tough against Ventura last out in the Woodbine Mile, is training well and impressing the clockers in the morning. If he’s even close to his ML at 20-1 I’ll be all over him like a cheap suit.

Cowboy Cal certainly looks to be in fine form and loves the distance but I’m more intrigued by Court Vision on his second out post-surgery. He and Karelian both fought gamely down the stretch in the Shadwell Turf Mile and could definitely hit the board.

Dana Byerly is a member of the Breeders’ Cup Fan Advisory Council and a founder of Hello Race Fans. She blogs at Green but Game and can be found on Twitter.

TRIFECTA
Plays from Jeremy Plonk

Most tickets key the same horse on top, and if you can get past the overplayed favorite, the trifecta blows up exponentially even with logical horses.

Friday, $10 Trifecta Part-Wheel ($20), Race 7

Filly and Mare Sprint: #2 Sara Louise with #9 Ventura with #8 Seventh Street, #7 Informed Decision ($20).

Friday, $5 Trifecta Part-Wheel ($20), Race 7

Filly and Mare Sprint: #2 Sara Louise with #8 Seventh Street, #7 Informed Decision with #9 Ventura, #8 Seventh Street, #7 Informed Decision.

Saturday, $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel ($36), Race 6

Mile: #3 Cowboy Cal with #8 Zacinto, #11 Goldikova, #7 Ferneley with ALL = $36.

Jeremy Plonk is a Breeders’ Cup 360 contributor.

SUPERFECTA
Plays from Dick Jerardi

The fourth horse is everything. Last year’s Turf Sprint trifecta paid $6,184.50. With the 4-1 favorite fourth, the superfecta paid $29,663.30.

Friday, $1 Superfecta Key ($60), Race 5

Juvenile Fillies: #4 Beautician over #3 Blind Luck, #6 Connie and Michael, #7 Devil May Care, #5 Bickersons and #8 She Be Wild.

Saturday, $1 Superfecta Part-Wheel ($60), Race 9

Classic: #10 Rip Van Winkle and #8 Einstein over #10 Rip Van Winkle and #8 Einstein over #3 Summer Bird, #4 Zenyatta, #6 Richard’s Kid, #9 Girolamo, #11 Regal Ransom and #12 Quality Road over #3 Summer Bird, #4 Zenyatta, #6 Richard’s Kid, #9 Girolamo, #11 Regal Ransom and #12 Quality Road.

Dick Jerardi is a Breeders’ Cup 360 contributor.

PICK 3
Play from Jason Shandler

Saturday, $1 Pick 3 ($56), Races 4-5-6

Sprint: #1 Zensational, #3 Fatal Bullet, #5 Gayego, #8 Capt. Candyman Can

Juvenile: #3 Beethoven, #4 Noble’s Promise, #5 D’ Funnybone, #7 Vale of York, #8 Eskendereya, #9 Aikenite, #13 Looking at Lucky

Mile: #7 Ferneley, #11 Goldikova

My ticket all revolves around Goldikova in the Mile, who I believe is the most likely horse to win a Breeders’ Cup race. She is every bit as good, if not better than, last year when she won the Mile in scintillating fashion. I think she runs huge again, but if she should get beat I believe it could be by Ferneley, an improving 5-year-old who won the Del Mar Mile and ran huge in the Woodbine Mile while losing to Ventura by a length.

In the Sprint, I like Zensational and Fatal Bullet most, but if things should fall apart late, Gayego and Capt. Canyman Can are the two most likely to pick up the pieces.

In the Juvenile, which is wide open, I am hoping to find my price horse. I think Aikentite and Eskendereya, Todd Pletcher’s horses, have decent chances to pull the upset.

Jason Shandler is a staff writer for Blood-Horse. Read his blog, Breeders’ Cup Chat or follow him on Twitter.

PICK 4
Play from Ed DeRosa

Friday, $1 Pick 4 Part-Wheel, Races 5-6-7-8

The all-Breeders’ Cup sequence: All with #2 with #2, #7, #8, #9 with #1, #7 for 96 units. I obviously have a 100% chance to survive leg one, a 50% chance to get through the second leg, a 90% chance to get through the third leg, and an 80% chance to hit the final leg. That’s a better than 2-to-1 chance to survive, and I have little doubt that this would pay more than 300 units.

Making a nice score in the Breeders’ Cup is not predicated on knowing who will win every race. The early pick four on Championship Saturday last year paid more than $5,000 and included the favorites Goldikova and Midshipman. I hit the thing because I played “all” in the Turf Sprint and went eight deep in the Dirt Mile, tossing the favorites. My opinions in the sequence were: Anyone could win the Turf Sprint, the longshots look good in the Dirt Mile, Goldikova is a near cinch, and only Midshipman or the fastest European could win the Juvenile. In reality, I only zeroed in on three horses (Goldikova plus two in the Juvenile), but that was enough to win a hefty amount.

The all Breeders’ Cup pick four on Championshp Friday really interests me this year since I have a similar sequence of opinions as last year: Anyone could win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies; #2 Forever Together is the most likely winner on the entire Breeders’ Cup program; the Filly and Mare Sprint is a good group, but only #2 Sara Louise, #7 Informed Decision, #8 Seventh Street, and #9 Ventura could win; the Ladies’ Classic comes down to #1 Careless Jewel or #7 Music Note.

You might be asking why I wouldn’t add more horses in the Forever Together leg if I only think I’m 50-50 to get through it, and again, it’s because of value. I would need to add three horses to get that race up to 75%, which makes the cost of the ticket 384 units. My bet quadrupled but my chance of hitting it only went up 50% and now it has to pay 800 units for it to be good value.

Ed DeRosa is News Editor of the Thoroughbred Times and the blogger behind Big Event Blog. He can also be found on Twitter.

So I’m safely installed at Santa Anita and, all things being equal, should be able to provide a more complete picture of the European contenders. The gossip and rumor mill is at full steam, offering some nuggets and some chronic misinformation in equal measure. Here’s how I see things as of Wednesday morning.

MARATHON

Mastery looks fantastic in his coat, particularly given how long he has been on the go this year. For all he is a stolid, unspectacular animal, he should hit the board at worst. I prefer the claims of Father Time, whose class may out granted this is (curiously) a test of speed relative to the St Leger. His sire, Dansili, has a good record on the synthetic surface. I spoke to Father Time’s rider Eddie Ahern, and suggested to him that his favoured “dive to the inside” approach may not be ideal here.

It has been noted that Ryan Moore has never ridden with his stirrups as long as when partnering Muhannak in his track work. Last year’s winner is a confirmed monkey, and is showing signs that his moind is on anything but the matter at hand.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Lille Langtry is being highly touted by every judge as Aidan O’Brien’s best chance of a winner. She has taken the journey exceptionally well, and has stronger claims on paper than last year’s runner-up Heart Shaped.

Spoke to Kieren Fallon this morning: having been unceremoniously dumped by Junia Tepzia on the training track, he was keen to find out as much as possible about her form in Italy. She is not much to look at, but, as Fallon put it, “she must have an engine.”

FILLY AND MARE TURF

Although Midday has got her winter coat, and has been clipped, she seems to be coping with the heat perfectly well. Indeed, she looked cooler than the other Cecil inmates on the track today. She will not work on the firm turf before Friday, as the trainer does not want to risk “jarring her up.”

The smart money suggests that Jonathan Sheppard has done an exquisite job preparing last year’s heroine, Forever Together. She will carry my support, though Midday should be placed.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

Onle Green should not be good enough on the balance of form, but she is training well and is 1-1 on synthetics.

LADIES’ CLASSIC

Rainbow View worked on the maintrack today. In my experience, John Gosden is much more inclined than many European trainers to give his raiders a proper blowout in the run up to the Cup. Gosden told me he wanted “to make her sweat.” This filly moves beautifully on the proride and represents Europe’s best ever chance in the race, a contest where they are currently 0-7.

JUVENILE TURF

Pounced and Buzzword look really well, particularly the latter. It’s a shame that he has drawn so poorly, but is probably not quite good enough anyway. I think the Europeans will win this, with preference for Viscount Nelson, whose Champagne Stakes run was most likeable.

Awesome Act got quite agitated and sweaty on the training track this morning.

TURF SPRINT

Strike The Deal is a real professional and, of any horse, best represents Kieren Fallon’s riding skills. Since returning from his suspension, Fallon has made a huge difference to this animal, whose lackadaisical ways were threatening to get the better of him. This helter skelter track should suit: the downhill will help him travel better early, whilst he can produce a rattling finish. Solid board claims, but this is a somewhat stronger race than last year for my money.

SPRINT

There may be nothing in this, but I’m detecting some negative vibes around the barns surrounding Fleeting Spirit. Also, she has been dealt a rotten hand by the draw Gods. Without these considerations, she enters calculations as a filly with tactical speed and strong finishing effort. Filles have a decent record in this, and she bids to become the first successful European since Sheikh Albadou in 1991.

JUVENILE

Hope rather than expectation is the order of the day here. My feeling is that Beethoven can beat his stable companion Alfred Nobel.

As far as the confidence of connections goes, Brian Meehan is hopeful of a big run from Radiohead. He was keen to persuade the new owners that this was the horse’s spot, rather than the juvenile turf. Sire Johannesburg took this in 2001.

His jockey, Martin Dwyer, had his first taste of Santa Anita’s proride this week: he reported to me that he thought it riding “quite slow.” Interesting, because another debutant jock, Tom Queally, felt it was “a bit faster than the synthetics at home.”

MILE

Goldikova looks a stronger physical specimen than at the corresponding stage last year. Her trainer Freddie Head is supremely confident, and seems gloriously unflustered by the terrible draw.
People are citing Six Perfections winning from the car park gate back in 03, but she was a filly that needed to be rated way off the speed. That won’t be so straightforward for Goldikova.

Gladiatorus looks most impressive, and seems a shade more relaxed than stable mate Delegator. Considering his lack of experience, Zacinto is taking all this like an old hand.

DIRT MILE

Mastercraftsman should take these apart, but enthusiasm is tempered by his long, hard season. The worry is whether he has enough tactical speed to hold a good position from Gate 1 without being hard ridden early.

TURF

For me, Spanish Moon is the European that stands out in terms of condition. Although Conduit is hard to fault, there seems to be a growing confidence in the Stoute camp that the Fallon-ridden second string can force the defending champ into submission.

I am growing keener on Spanish Moon by the day, particularly as he gate schooled this morning. There is even a school of thought that suggests he should be running in the Classic.

Dar Re Mi has worked pre-6am every morning, and is in good shape. I still have her in any exotic bets.

CLASSIC

After well documented scares surrounding his notorious feet and a difficult journey, Rip van Winkle finally delighted Aidan O’Brien this morning. Indeed, for all the hyperbole surrounding past Ballydoyle inmates, I have never heard him enthuse quite so readily. In short, he thinks this colt is going to take this Classic apart if he brings anything close to his A-game.

The locals are forgetting Twice Over, paying him almost no attention. More fool them.

November 4, 2009: Horses, horses everywhere.