So I’m safely installed at Santa Anita and, all things being equal, should be able to provide a more complete picture of the European contenders. The gossip and rumor mill is at full steam, offering some nuggets and some chronic misinformation in equal measure. Here’s how I see things as of Wednesday morning.

MARATHON

Mastery looks fantastic in his coat, particularly given how long he has been on the go this year. For all he is a stolid, unspectacular animal, he should hit the board at worst. I prefer the claims of Father Time, whose class may out granted this is (curiously) a test of speed relative to the St Leger. His sire, Dansili, has a good record on the synthetic surface. I spoke to Father Time’s rider Eddie Ahern, and suggested to him that his favoured “dive to the inside” approach may not be ideal here.

It has been noted that Ryan Moore has never ridden with his stirrups as long as when partnering Muhannak in his track work. Last year’s winner is a confirmed monkey, and is showing signs that his moind is on anything but the matter at hand.

JUVENILE FILLIES TURF

Lille Langtry is being highly touted by every judge as Aidan O’Brien’s best chance of a winner. She has taken the journey exceptionally well, and has stronger claims on paper than last year’s runner-up Heart Shaped.

Spoke to Kieren Fallon this morning: having been unceremoniously dumped by Junia Tepzia on the training track, he was keen to find out as much as possible about her form in Italy. She is not much to look at, but, as Fallon put it, “she must have an engine.”

FILLY AND MARE TURF

Although Midday has got her winter coat, and has been clipped, she seems to be coping with the heat perfectly well. Indeed, she looked cooler than the other Cecil inmates on the track today. She will not work on the firm turf before Friday, as the trainer does not want to risk “jarring her up.”

The smart money suggests that Jonathan Sheppard has done an exquisite job preparing last year’s heroine, Forever Together. She will carry my support, though Midday should be placed.

FILLY AND MARE SPRINT

Onle Green should not be good enough on the balance of form, but she is training well and is 1-1 on synthetics.

LADIES’ CLASSIC

Rainbow View worked on the maintrack today. In my experience, John Gosden is much more inclined than many European trainers to give his raiders a proper blowout in the run up to the Cup. Gosden told me he wanted “to make her sweat.” This filly moves beautifully on the proride and represents Europe’s best ever chance in the race, a contest where they are currently 0-7.

JUVENILE TURF

Pounced and Buzzword look really well, particularly the latter. It’s a shame that he has drawn so poorly, but is probably not quite good enough anyway. I think the Europeans will win this, with preference for Viscount Nelson, whose Champagne Stakes run was most likeable.

Awesome Act got quite agitated and sweaty on the training track this morning.

TURF SPRINT

Strike The Deal is a real professional and, of any horse, best represents Kieren Fallon’s riding skills. Since returning from his suspension, Fallon has made a huge difference to this animal, whose lackadaisical ways were threatening to get the better of him. This helter skelter track should suit: the downhill will help him travel better early, whilst he can produce a rattling finish. Solid board claims, but this is a somewhat stronger race than last year for my money.

SPRINT

There may be nothing in this, but I’m detecting some negative vibes around the barns surrounding Fleeting Spirit. Also, she has been dealt a rotten hand by the draw Gods. Without these considerations, she enters calculations as a filly with tactical speed and strong finishing effort. Filles have a decent record in this, and she bids to become the first successful European since Sheikh Albadou in 1991.

JUVENILE

Hope rather than expectation is the order of the day here. My feeling is that Beethoven can beat his stable companion Alfred Nobel.

As far as the confidence of connections goes, Brian Meehan is hopeful of a big run from Radiohead. He was keen to persuade the new owners that this was the horse’s spot, rather than the juvenile turf. Sire Johannesburg took this in 2001.

His jockey, Martin Dwyer, had his first taste of Santa Anita’s proride this week: he reported to me that he thought it riding “quite slow.” Interesting, because another debutant jock, Tom Queally, felt it was “a bit faster than the synthetics at home.”

MILE

Goldikova looks a stronger physical specimen than at the corresponding stage last year. Her trainer Freddie Head is supremely confident, and seems gloriously unflustered by the terrible draw.
People are citing Six Perfections winning from the car park gate back in 03, but she was a filly that needed to be rated way off the speed. That won’t be so straightforward for Goldikova.

Gladiatorus looks most impressive, and seems a shade more relaxed than stable mate Delegator. Considering his lack of experience, Zacinto is taking all this like an old hand.

DIRT MILE

Mastercraftsman should take these apart, but enthusiasm is tempered by his long, hard season. The worry is whether he has enough tactical speed to hold a good position from Gate 1 without being hard ridden early.

TURF

For me, Spanish Moon is the European that stands out in terms of condition. Although Conduit is hard to fault, there seems to be a growing confidence in the Stoute camp that the Fallon-ridden second string can force the defending champ into submission.

I am growing keener on Spanish Moon by the day, particularly as he gate schooled this morning. There is even a school of thought that suggests he should be running in the Classic.

Dar Re Mi has worked pre-6am every morning, and is in good shape. I still have her in any exotic bets.

CLASSIC

After well documented scares surrounding his notorious feet and a difficult journey, Rip van Winkle finally delighted Aidan O’Brien this morning. Indeed, for all the hyperbole surrounding past Ballydoyle inmates, I have never heard him enthuse quite so readily. In short, he thinks this colt is going to take this Classic apart if he brings anything close to his A-game.

The locals are forgetting Twice Over, paying him almost no attention. More fool them.

The trials are run, and a good portion of prospective Breeders’ Cup fields have a decidedly European bent. When it comes to handicapping these races, however, the international dimension can render the thoughts of usually rational folk somewhat opaque. European punters can point to class superiority, but rarely account for whether the races are likely to run to suit. American handicappers, paradoxically, love a Euro winner from yesteryear without factoring in possible regression or a better clutch of horses waiting in the wings.

We’re little over a fortnight away from the main event; the likely starters are growing clearer: it’s time to consider some serious wagering strategies, and to blow apart some European slam-dunk theories.

FILLY AND MARE TURF

The key here is the participation of Dar Re Mi. Connections are weighing up easier opposition of her own sex versus a more suitable distance against males. My spies suggest the Turf is being most seriously considered, and she would be a massive player in either race. The presence of last year’s winner Forever Together may divert the same owner’s Rainbow View to the Ladies’ Classic. Come what may, the bulk of this year’s evidence suggests the diminutive EP Taylor runner-up is vulnerable in top company on firm ground (the Pro-Ride may actually suit better).

Magical Fantasy makes some appeal, but will need this to be an Intercontinental-style speed test. If you’re betting in Britain, I would suggest the generally available 6/1 about Midday a very solid wager. Henry Cecil’s filly has been hugely consistent this campaign, has been targeting this all year, and should do better for her recent run in the Prix de l’Opera, a race run at an unsatisfactory tempo.

At this stage, I’m looking to play Midday over Forever Together, with Opera winner Shalanaya a lively contender if she shows up.

MILE

Ok, I may need your help here. You and I both know that Goldikova probably has more talent than any animal in the whole event, and that something a shade below her best is probably sufficient. We also know, however, that she will likely start odds-on, and the big stake/small odds equation is not particularly appealing when it comes to a filly beaten at a cramped price in her prep.

I can forgive one disappointment over an unsuitable distance, but there remains a nagging suspicion that Goldikova may be capable of beating herself with what looks an increasingly willful streak. She has given trouble at the start on more than one occasion this year, and seems to be running harder up with the speed from the outset. Perhaps I am looking for non-existent flaws, but her devastating win in the Jacques le Marois suggested to me that she may have peaked too early in the season.

The problem here is the relatively insipid opposition. Of the Europeans, I prefer the speedy Delegator over the progressive Zacinto, who was flattered by a clever ride at Ascot. The sharp turn of foot so often characteristic of Mile winners is a potent weapon in Delegator’s armoury: are Godolphin clever enough to send second string Gladiatorus to the front, setting pedestrian fractions to force Goldikova to commit early, allowing Delegator to run her down?

As for the home team, the “form horses” look as threadbare as last year: there must be a longshot we can drum up for this race between now and then?

TURF

For reasons exhaustively documented in an earlier post, I am against Conduit here. Nothing personal, you understand. In fact, I admire this horse enormously: he is tough, genuinely high class, and superbly consistent. In the best possible way, he’s just a bit slow, and was gifted this race last year by some plain bonkers suicidal fractions through the first mile. The balance of his form fully entitles him to be favorite, but he could just be vulnerable in a more traditionally run race, and we can be assured of no Ballydoyle rabbit this time around. Stablemate Spanish Moon has been such a wise-guy horse that his price has collapsed seven fold in the last fortnight. At 25/1, he was interesting; at 4/1, he is way too short.

It is possible that Presious Passion could get to the lead here and do his own thing up front. For all that he is six, and lacks a sexy progressive profile, his CLH win was quite impressive and he could well step up again for the move up to twelve furlongs. If Dar Re Mi runs here, I fancy her to come out best of the Europeans and to reverse with Conduit their positions in the Arc, where she got involved in the heat of the battle at a much earlier stage.

I’ll look to box Presious Passion and Dar Re Mi, and include Conduit in the trifecta.

CLASSIC

Let’s face it, the portents are strong for Europe here: the one-two at the same track last year, a very strong contingent this time around, and the recent Grade 1 success of Gitano Hernando, a progressive horse, but not fit to lick Rip van Winkle’s boots at home. Aidan O’Brien is desperate for this race, as evidenced by how many brilliant horses have been thrown in this direction since Giant’s Causeway’s agonizing defeat in 2000. He also hasn’t had a Breeders’ Cup winner since 2003, a statistic that will not have gone unnoticed.

For all the notices from the stable, there is not that much on the formbook between Rip van Winkle and Mastercraftsman. In addition, both are dual Group One winners at a mile, suggesting sufficient pace, while exhibiting staying qualities that easily enable both to last a well run mile and a quarter. Given that Johnny Murtagh will likely ride Rip, a local rider for Mastercraftsman is an interesting angle, and he could outrun double figure odds.

I’ll certainly have a very close look at including Twice Over in my permutations. For all that he is a relative latecomer to the Classic party, he looked in magnificent physical shape before his Champion Stakes victory, and has been produced to peak at the right moment. Lest we forget, he beat Raven’s Pass at the beginning of his three year old career.

If Zenyatta misses out, the one I fear most of the home team is Quality Road. Everything about his pedigree and his run style suggests that the Pro-Ride should suit, and I would confidently expect him to reverse Belmont Park form with Summer Bird, who could prove vulnerable to a quickener.

You only have to read Fanny Salmon’s compelling account of Arc day to understand the impact a once-a-generation horse has on a big occasion. And, if I’m reading correctly, there was as much pleasure to be had in the build-up to the climactic moment as there was in the glorious denouement.

A great athlete has the capacity to enrich your life emotionally as well as financially. Two of my more hard-bitten, if not downright cynical, horseplaying colleagues were spotted eagerly snapping away with cell phones at Sea the Stars as he strolled nonchalantly around the Longchamp paddock.

You all know that racing has to work a whole lot harder than other sports to infringe on the zeitgeist — the front page of the Daily Telegraph, Britain’s biggest selling broadsheet, carried a monster image of Sea the Stars on Monday’s front page. A picture of a racehorse was dropped onto 814,000 doormats.

And now, just as we have scratched the surface of the public consciousness, some within our firmament want us to retreat whence we came and to send this magnificent horse into retirement.

“Should Sea The Stars go for the Breeders’ Cup Classic?” vox-pops the Racing Post. “The horse is too valuable to run at Santa Anita,” says Canadian Clare. “No, send him to stud,” says Jack. “No, he’s got nothing to prove,” “Absolutely not — just be grateful we’ve seen him,” “No. Everyone knows he’s far superior to any BC entry,” and so on, and so on.

My Channel 4 colleague Alistair Down adds the most grist to this mill. “Those who wish to see him in the Breeders’ Cup doubtless mean well (or have already booked) but on November 7 Sea The Stars should be pottering about the edge of the Curragh … and being brought off the treadmill on which he has been since the beginning of the year.”

Look, nobody wants to see this horse abused, but we have ultimate faith in John Oxx’s judgment on that score. If he is fine and well, please John, put him on that plane and, for the record, yes I have booked. I understand fully that Sea The Stars has nothing to prove, but also appreciate that his record will be in no way tarnished if he is defeated. I am not aware of Dancing Brave’s reputation taking a battering when beaten in the 1986 Breeders’ Cup; indeed, it is his name that has most often been evoked in the “Is this the greatest horse of all time?” debate.

One of the reasons for each successive victory proving sweeter than the last is the continued defiance of the growing fear that he might be beaten with each sterner task. It is this fear that heightens anticipation, thus making participation in the event more intoxicating.

We know for certain that 2010 will be without Sea The Stars. Anyone with a true passion for the sport cannot simply take comfort from the statistical and historical perfection of the campaign thus far. They have the opportunity for another fix, and they need to take it.

Would you rather watch the Breeders’ cup Classic with him or without him?

Sometimes the horse you most admire is the one that has worked hardest to win you over. When an animal you perceive as unworthy of hype shows his class and flair time and again, you suddenly find yourself president of his fan club, perhaps to compensate for your own flawed dogma in the first place.

When Rip van Winkle strung together a “promising” seventh in last year’s Dewhurst, a “pleasing” fourth in the 2000 Guineas, and a “not quite get the run of things” fourth in the Derby, many had him pegged as a poseur: Here was an attractive colt without the application to match his looks or his reputation. Furthermore, he seemed perfectly named, “loathing profitable labor” and tending to nod off at the crucially competitive period of the race, irrespective of the distance.

Then he finished second to Sea the Stars in the Eclipse in July, and never was a horse’s reputation so enhanced by defeat. Whilst tempting to suggest he lacked the heart of the winner, it appeared more accurate to say that he ran into the best and showed he could run hard for ten consecutive furlongs.

Dropped to a mile, he dominated the Sussex Stakes, bossing a good older horse in Paco Boy and a top-notch filly in Ghanaati, in spite of suffering from his well-documented foot problems in the immediate run-up to the race. Last Saturday, off his first uninterrupted preparation of the season, he took a four-runner Queen Elizabeth II Stakes at Ascot stylishly enough en route to the Breeders’ Cup Classic, a race for which he is a best-priced 7/2 with British bookmakers.

The ball’s really rolling again, hype-wise. As my colleague James Willoughby wrote in the Racing Post, “one wonders what Rip van Winkle would have been able to do had Aidan O’Brien had a clear run with him throughout his career.” And anyone can see that the pattern of defeats followed by victories, all at top level, bears a striking resemblance to the progressive campaign enjoyed by Raven’s Pass in 2008.

Cards on the table now, though, and I reckon 7/2 is a pretty rancid price for the Classic — and that’s a standout; most firms are betting 9/4 or 5/2. On the plus side, soundness prevailing, you’re guaranteed a run with a horse of abundant talent, brilliantly trained.

Against that, consider the way this horse has been aggressively ridden the last twice, setting or sitting close to strong fractions before keeping on stoutly. Consensus of opinion is that this has been a sensible policy in order to negate the possibility of a steadily run mile with a horse that has proven stamina over further.

I wonder, however, whether Johnny Murtagh gave the game away after Ascot when he said that O’Brien had instructed him to have the horse engaged in top gear fully three furlongs from home, before the entrance to the short Ascot stretch. In such circumstances, the horse ran tremendously well to win, digging in to fend off the persistent late charge of Zacinto, an outsider ridden much more conservatively.

I want to mark up the performance in terms of form, but fear that connections believe that Rip van Winkle is an animal that requires a dynamic, galvanizing ride in order to motivate him fully through a race. Perhaps, over 10 furlongs in the BC Classic, the tactics will be more circumspect? Then again, will O’Brien have John Velazquez’s words regarding over-patience on Henrythenavigator in 2008 ringing in his ears?

I believe his trainer is right when he says that Rip van Winkle is a cruiser that stays well. If the horse is to succeed in the Classic, however, he will need to be ridden with commensurate confidence, else he will end up the proverbial sitting duck for Zenyatta, Sea The Stars et al.

I was excited to receive feedback after the first installment; for all that it came in the guise of a roasting from NPR for failing to mention Conduit, his beloved turf hero.

So, acknowledging that was pretty remiss, NPR, here are my thoughts.

First, your contention that “Conduit must have a great chance” is clearly spot-on. What struck me hardest after he passed the post last year was that he was atypical of European Breeders’ Cup winners on grass insofar as his victory was a building block in a career rather than a topping-out ceremony.

For many turf champions, a BC win has been a satisfying affirmation of greatness or, at least, consistency at the highest level — I’m thinking of Daylami, Fantastic Light, Pilsudski, Islington. Even High Chaparral and Ouija Board, both dual winners, were already established as divisional leaders prior to their initial BC victories.

By contrast, Conduit was an improver that needed a career best to win last year’s race. Happily, for those of you whose faith in the form of the race needed restoring, he has continued his steady upward curve, winning the King George (G1) with enough authority on his only try at 1 1/2 miles this year.

So last year’s winner returns to the same venue a better, stronger horse off a relatively light and focused campaign. Surely he wins again?

It may be a little less straightforward: I seem to remember similar blind faith in Six Perfections at Lone Star Park (Mile) and Ouija Board at Belmont (Filly and Mare Turf).

Let’s be clear when assessing last year’s race that Conduit owed his victory to a suicidal mid-race pace and sound tactical judgment from jockey Ryan Moore. It is well worth comparing the sectional times of the three Breeders’ Cup Turfs that have taken place at Santa Anita in 1993 (Kotashaan), 2003 (High Chaparral/Johar) and 2008 (Conduit). The early intentions of the Ballydoyle pacemaker Red Rock Canyon were evident twelve months ago when he completed the first half mile in little over :47 seconds, compared with :48 3/5 in both the 1993 and 2003 runnings. Furthermore, when stable companion Soldier of Fortune was sent to join issue at halfway, the pair ran to the mile in a blistering 1.33.86, only a tick or two outside the final time for the BC Mile itself and relative to 1.35.76 (2003) and 1.37.20 (1993).

Thus, it was simply impossible for the pace to hold up and the talented Soldier of Fortune gave way to the closers, as evidenced by the fact that the final quarter was run slower than either of the previous years cited. This allowed the economically ridden and stamina-laden Conduit to run home less slowly than his dwindling rivals: Remember that it took him what seemed an eternity to run down Eagle Mountain, a horse whose limitations had been exposed on a few occasions at the top level in Europe.

My contention is that Gio Ponti and Fame and Glory will pose a sterner challenge in terms of speed and class, and that Conduit will require an evenly strong tempo, at least, to be assured of a repeat victory. He is a wholly admirable horse, but one that lacks a potent turn of foot, hence his slightly less stellar efforts at shorter distances.

What will encourage Conduit devotees, however, is that Sir Michael Stoute is adamant that this is a horse whose physique almost ensures that he progresses well through the course of the season. In addition, Ryan Moore gave me every indication in an interview last weekend that the horse is coming to a peak ahead of his run in the Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in a fortnight. Of course, what we must also take into account is whether a big run in that showpiece event might compromise his chance in California.

I would really welcome your thoughts as to the strength of the home challenge and, as such, the likely pace scenario in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf.

I’ll be checking back later in the week with thoughts on the fillies.

What better way to extend a dazzling summer of sport than to anticipate another European smash and grab in California? The Breeders’ Cup Classic, in particular, could shape up as a race of global significance, as opposed to a merely parochial championship.

How perception of this both ancient and modern event has changed on these shores. Whilst a tilt at the biggest race was once considered windmill-leaning, it is now being written up as “de rigeur” for any middle distance horse worth his or her salt. It is most unusual that an international raider should be garlanded as the most mentionable participant of the event, but I fancy that will be the case if Sea The Stars makes the journey that we all crave.

In my lifetime, albeit considerably shorter than many of my esteemed media colleagues, this is the best horse that I have had the good fortune to encounter. His five straight Group Ones have not only showcased his class and versatility, but also his heart and resolution.

In the Spring of this year, I interviewed Aidan O’Brien at Ballydoyle. His commentary on the athletic rigors of top-class competition was most revealing: he talked about horses entering a “red-zone,” whereby their cardiovascular systems are tested to the full as they run towards the pain barrier.

If you note the times of Sea The Stars’s last three victories — two track records and an above-standard time on soft ground — you have all the evidence you need that this special colt has dragged his wearying rivals (most trained, ironically, by O’Brien) through that red-zone, while emerging unscathed himself.

It is a universally accepted truth that a horse’s form is cyclical, that it builds to a peak figure before a slight recoil and so forth. In the case of Sea The Stars, the times clocked show peak after peak after peak after peak.

Presently, John Oxx is asking us not to ask him about Breeders’ Cup. So we do, repeatedly, and the response is sensibly non-committal. Let us hope that this beast struts his stuff majestically in the Arc, and then gets on the plane.

The interesting upshot of Sea The Stars’s dominance might be the effect that his crushing defeats has had on some of O’Brien’s likely cup contenders. Will these be suitably fresh horses come the end of the first week in November? Or will they be emboldened by the experience of proper competition?

These are imponderables, as are the targets for Rip Van Winkle (currently working his way back from injury), Mastercraftsman, and Fame and Glory. If I were to hazard a guess, I would suggest the first pair would run in the Classic, with Fame and Glory a short priced favourite for the Turf. The Ballydoyle team, badly in need of a first Cup win since 2003, will leave us wondering for the time being.

I think they know that to take on Goldikova in the Mile is likely a futile dice-roll. For all that Freddie Head’s filly has looked ever more willful in the preliminaries, she has appeared ever more stellar on the way back to the winner’s enclosure. Her Jacques Le Marois romp had a proper franking last weekend, as runner-up Aqlaam took the Group 1 Prix du Moulin. Head told us last year that Goldikova was better than Miesque. How we laughed. We’re not laughing now.

That’s the likely European skeleton. I’m richly looking forward to putting the flesh on the bones as the Breeders’ Cup draws near.