Midday has been targeting the Filly and Mare Turf all year (AP Photo)

The trials are run, and a good portion of prospective Breeders’ Cup fields have a decidedly European bent. When it comes to handicapping these races, however, the international dimension can render the thoughts of usually rational folk somewhat opaque. European punters can point to class superiority, but rarely account for whether the races are likely to run to suit. American handicappers, paradoxically, love a Euro winner from yesteryear without factoring in possible regression or a better clutch of horses waiting in the wings.

We’re little over a fortnight away from the main event; the likely starters are growing clearer: it’s time to consider some serious wagering strategies, and to blow apart some European slam-dunk theories.

FILLY AND MARE TURF

The key here is the participation of Dar Re Mi. Connections are weighing up easier opposition of her own sex versus a more suitable distance against males. My spies suggest the Turf is being most seriously considered, and she would be a massive player in either race. The presence of last year’s winner Forever Together may divert the same owner’s Rainbow View to the Ladies’ Classic. Come what may, the bulk of this year’s evidence suggests the diminutive EP Taylor runner-up is vulnerable in top company on firm ground (the Pro-Ride may actually suit better).

Magical Fantasy makes some appeal, but will need this to be an Intercontinental-style speed test. If you’re betting in Britain, I would suggest the generally available 6/1 about Midday a very solid wager. Henry Cecil’s filly has been hugely consistent this campaign, has been targeting this all year, and should do better for her recent run in the Prix de l’Opera, a race run at an unsatisfactory tempo.

At this stage, I’m looking to play Midday over Forever Together, with Opera winner Shalanaya a lively contender if she shows up.

MILE

Ok, I may need your help here. You and I both know that Goldikova probably has more talent than any animal in the whole event, and that something a shade below her best is probably sufficient. We also know, however, that she will likely start odds-on, and the big stake/small odds equation is not particularly appealing when it comes to a filly beaten at a cramped price in her prep.

I can forgive one disappointment over an unsuitable distance, but there remains a nagging suspicion that Goldikova may be capable of beating herself with what looks an increasingly willful streak. She has given trouble at the start on more than one occasion this year, and seems to be running harder up with the speed from the outset. Perhaps I am looking for non-existent flaws, but her devastating win in the Jacques le Marois suggested to me that she may have peaked too early in the season.

The problem here is the relatively insipid opposition. Of the Europeans, I prefer the speedy Delegator over the progressive Zacinto, who was flattered by a clever ride at Ascot. The sharp turn of foot so often characteristic of Mile winners is a potent weapon in Delegator’s armoury: are Godolphin clever enough to send second string Gladiatorus to the front, setting pedestrian fractions to force Goldikova to commit early, allowing Delegator to run her down?

As for the home team, the “form horses” look as threadbare as last year: there must be a longshot we can drum up for this race between now and then?

TURF

For reasons exhaustively documented in an earlier post, I am against Conduit here. Nothing personal, you understand. In fact, I admire this horse enormously: he is tough, genuinely high class, and superbly consistent. In the best possible way, he’s just a bit slow, and was gifted this race last year by some plain bonkers suicidal fractions through the first mile. The balance of his form fully entitles him to be favorite, but he could just be vulnerable in a more traditionally run race, and we can be assured of no Ballydoyle rabbit this time around. Stablemate Spanish Moon has been such a wise-guy horse that his price has collapsed seven fold in the last fortnight. At 25/1, he was interesting; at 4/1, he is way too short.

It is possible that Presious Passion could get to the lead here and do his own thing up front. For all that he is six, and lacks a sexy progressive profile, his CLH win was quite impressive and he could well step up again for the move up to twelve furlongs. If Dar Re Mi runs here, I fancy her to come out best of the Europeans and to reverse with Conduit their positions in the Arc, where she got involved in the heat of the battle at a much earlier stage.

I’ll look to box Presious Passion and Dar Re Mi, and include Conduit in the trifecta.

CLASSIC

Let’s face it, the portents are strong for Europe here: the one-two at the same track last year, a very strong contingent this time around, and the recent Grade 1 success of Gitano Hernando, a progressive horse, but not fit to lick Rip van Winkle’s boots at home. Aidan O’Brien is desperate for this race, as evidenced by how many brilliant horses have been thrown in this direction since Giant’s Causeway’s agonizing defeat in 2000. He also hasn’t had a Breeders’ Cup winner since 2003, a statistic that will not have gone unnoticed.

For all the notices from the stable, there is not that much on the formbook between Rip van Winkle and Mastercraftsman. In addition, both are dual Group One winners at a mile, suggesting sufficient pace, while exhibiting staying qualities that easily enable both to last a well run mile and a quarter. Given that Johnny Murtagh will likely ride Rip, a local rider for Mastercraftsman is an interesting angle, and he could outrun double figure odds.

I’ll certainly have a very close look at including Twice Over in my permutations. For all that he is a relative latecomer to the Classic party, he looked in magnificent physical shape before his Champion Stakes victory, and has been produced to peak at the right moment. Lest we forget, he beat Raven’s Pass at the beginning of his three year old career.

If Zenyatta misses out, the one I fear most of the home team is Quality Road. Everything about his pedigree and his run style suggests that the Pro-Ride should suit, and I would confidently expect him to reverse Belmont Park form with Summer Bird, who could prove vulnerable to a quickener.