Considering the Possibilities, Part 2

By Jeff Siegel / 12:09 pm, 09.18.09

Zensational
Zensational clearly loves the synthetics (Benoit)

Part two of a division-by-division Breeders’ Cup overview from Jeff Siegel. Read part one.

Continuing with the remaining divisions:

BC Turf – Conduit will return to defend his title and may be even better this year than last. Other than Gio Ponti, who is very good but has made his rep defeating the likes of Marsh Side, Musketier and Just As Well, the main strength in this division comes, as usual, from Europe. Fame and Glory has five wins and two seconds from seven career starts including four Group stakes and two Group-1′s, and has never finished behind by any horse other than Sea the Stars (twice). Cavalryman and Spanish Moon are both BC Eligible but first will challenge Sea the Stars in the Arc next month. And there are a few others who are just as good now as Conduit was last year, including Ask (a stable mate of Conduit trained by Sir Michael Stoute), and Age of Aquarius, from Aidan O’Brien’s yard.

BC Turf Mile – Goldikova will be back. She’s better now than last year. Who runs second? If the Euro-based Rip Van Winkle, Delegator and Aqlaam (all of whom need to be supplemented) also make the trip in addition to BC nominated Mastercraftsman, Ghannati, and Famous Name, the Americans will have little chance to make any impression, although we love the potential of the rapidly improving Courageous Cat, who already may be the best turf miler in the States.

BC Mile Dirt – We have Gayego rated number one, and while that’s a leap of faith, who else would you consider for thoroughbred racing’s version of the NIT? Although well intentioned when it was created in 2007, this race has become a BC Classic consolation prize and at least Gayego, who was a sharp Saratoga overnight winner in his first start since his runner-up performance in the Godolphin Mile in Dubai, fits the conditions. Others who should surface include Forego winner Pyro (but check his record on synthetics); Kodiak Kowboy (it’s either this or the BC Sprint and six furlongs is too sharp), and the apparently worn out 3-year-olds Kensei, Charitable Man, and Big Drama. If his nine length romp in the Pennsylvania Derby wasn’t a fluke, maybe Gone Astray will be a factor, along with his Shug McGaughey-trained older stable mate Parading.

BC Sprint – Zensational has been beating glorified high priced claiming company in California in races lacking early heat, but he clearly loves the plastic and this division seems to be getting thinner by the week. Fabulous Strike, who probably would be the favorite if this year’s BC was contested on dirt, is a question mark. He never got untracked in last year’s race, although the surface may not have been the only reason. Munnings and Capt. Candyman Can are legit and Fatal Bullet did run second in last year’s BC Sprint, but other than that, there’s not much depth here. And if you give Bob Baffert two months to prepare for a race in his own back yard (like last year with Midnight Lute), he’s hard to beat, so right now Zensational is sitting pretty.

BC Turf Sprint – Cannonball’s victorious return to the States in a recent Saratoga overnight sprint stakes signals this Wesley Ward-trained gelding as the one to beat in the Giant Slalom. His two Group performances at Royal Ascot last summer within four days of each other magnified his class and his late-charging style is ideal for the downhill course. Last year’s BC Turf Sprint was won by a long shot deep closer (Desert Code) and if both California Flag and Mr. Nightlinger show up again, a repeat of that :41 4/5 opening half could set things up beautifully again for the come-from-behinders. This division is strong, though. Chamberlain Bridge was visually impressive in his Labor Day sprint win at Philadelphia Park and two classy Euros — Fleeting Spirit and High Standing — are eligible to make the trip. Toss is the locally-based Noble Court and Delta Storm and you have what might be the most contentious race of the program.

BC Marathon – Night Lite’s gate-to-wire victory in the 12 furlong Turfway Fall Championship last weekend makes him America’s number one prospect in this division – by default. The Rick Dutrow-trained Rising Moon might fit here as well, but this race, as it was last year, is Europe’s for the asking and they could probably send a scout team player to win it. Those from overseas with BC eligibility and proven top class form in staying races include Bronze Cannon, Mastery, Father Time, Alandi, Armure, Kirklees, Wajir, Manighar, Pointilliste, Winkle, Precision Break and Askar Tau. Whoever among that list shows up automatically becomes the horse to beat. Heck, even the hurdler Kasbah Bliss could probably win it.

BC Juvenile – Undefeated Lookin at Lucky hasn’t been particularly fast on numbers, but that’s precisely why he’s so appealing. Even without the hype that the big figs manufacture, the son of Smart Strikes has been thoroughly genuine and professional, has the pedigree to run on (Smart Strike) and clearly thrives on synthetic. He’s way more dangerous than his 82 Beyer winning number in the Del Mar Futurity would lead on. Dublin looks like the goods for D. Wayne Lukas, and he’s another who should stay, but the trainer has expressed concern with the Pro-ride surface and indicates he might not come. Okay, but If there’s an Eclipse Award at stake, he’ll be here. Trainer John Sadler has a pair of enormously promising recent Del Mar maiden winners to consider — Sidney’s Candy and Dave in Dixie — and we’ll find out more about them perhaps in the Norfolk Stakes October 4.

BC Juvenile Turf – We haven’t seen much so far from American-based juveniles on turf primarily due to lack of opportunity. The Todd Pletcher-trained Interactif was visually impressive winning the With Anticipation at Saratoga and has a right to be considered a major contender in race that the Euros would dominate if they chose to. The really, really good BC eligible colts from overseas — Arctic, Al Zir, Buzzword, Elusive Pimpernel, Poet’s Voice and Showcasing come to mind — are considered Guineas prospects and their connections might just decide to call it a season rather than carry on into November. But it may not take a top class colt to win it. English shipper Donativim proved that last year.

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