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Breeders’ Cup Picks and Plays
By Editor / 5:58 pm, 11.05.09
Breeders’ Cup 360 asked handicappers for their best plays and our analysts for their top picks.
Jump to a wager or our analysts’ picks: Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Pick 3 / Pick 4 / Picks
Friday, $2 Exacta Key or Box ($6-12), Race 8
Ladies’ Classic: #1 Careless Jewel over #6 Cocoa Beach, #4 Lethal Heat, and #5 Proviso. OR, if you’re leery of Careless Jewel (due for a clunker, distance, surface, etc.) box #6 Cocoa Beach, #4 Lethal Heat, and #5 Proviso.
In the unlikely event that her ML odds stay, Careless Jewel at 2-1 is a good value, but there are are couple of other interesting possibilities. Cocoa Beach is coming into form at just the right time and she’s working great, impressing Mike Welsch with her 5F work in 59.62.
Another filly of interest is local Lethal Heat, now only running on Friday! She seems to be knocking on the door with two game performances at Santa Anita. Lethal Heat and Cocoa Beach ran second and third to Zenyatta in the Ladies Secret and looked great in the stretch. Don’t be surprised to see this one hit the board.
I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Proviso, Mushka and Rainbow View as possibilities. I’m going with the locally prepped angle but I wouldn’t be surprised to see any of these in the money. Of the three of them I’m most interested in Proviso, particularly if she stays around her ML odds of 8-1. This pace scenario seems likely to be similar to the Spinster, which will suit her well.
Saturday, $2 Exacta Key or Box ($6-12), Race 6
Mile: #11 Goldikova over #7 Ferneley, #5 Karelian, and #1 Court Vision. OR, if you really want to live a little for approximately a minute and half and $12, box #7 Ferneley, #5 Karelian, and #1 Court Vision.
There’s no reason to think Golidkova can’t repeat in the Mile, but that doesn’t mean you can’t find some value. Ferneley was tough against Ventura last out in the Woodbine Mile, is training well and impressing the clockers in the morning. If he’s even close to his ML at 20-1 I’ll be all over him like a cheap suit.
Cowboy Cal certainly looks to be in fine form and loves the distance but I’m more intrigued by Court Vision on his second out post-surgery. He and Karelian both fought gamely down the stretch in the Shadwell Turf Mile and could definitely hit the board.
Dana Byerly is a member of the Breeders’ Cup Fan Advisory Council and a founder of Hello Race Fans. She blogs at Green but Game and can be found on Twitter.
TRIFECTA
Plays from Jeremy Plonk
Most tickets key the same horse on top, and if you can get past the overplayed favorite, the trifecta blows up exponentially even with logical horses.
Friday, $10 Trifecta Part-Wheel ($20), Race 7
Filly and Mare Sprint: #2 Sara Louise with #9 Ventura with #8 Seventh Street, #7 Informed Decision ($20).
Friday, $5 Trifecta Part-Wheel ($20), Race 7
Filly and Mare Sprint: #2 Sara Louise with #8 Seventh Street, #7 Informed Decision with #9 Ventura, #8 Seventh Street, #7 Informed Decision.
Saturday, $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel ($36), Race 6
Mile: #3 Cowboy Cal with #8 Zacinto, #11 Goldikova, #7 Ferneley with ALL = $36.
Jeremy Plonk is a Breeders’ Cup 360 contributor.
SUPERFECTA
Plays from Dick Jerardi
The fourth horse is everything. Last year’s Turf Sprint trifecta paid $6,184.50. With the 4-1 favorite fourth, the superfecta paid $29,663.30.
Friday, $1 Superfecta Key ($60), Race 5
Juvenile Fillies: #4 Beautician over #3 Blind Luck, #6 Connie and Michael, #7 Devil May Care, #5 Bickersons and #8 She Be Wild.
Saturday, $1 Superfecta Part-Wheel ($60), Race 9
Classic: #10 Rip Van Winkle and #8 Einstein over #10 Rip Van Winkle and #8 Einstein over #3 Summer Bird, #4 Zenyatta, #6 Richard’s Kid, #9 Girolamo, #11 Regal Ransom and #12 Quality Road over #3 Summer Bird, #4 Zenyatta, #6 Richard’s Kid, #9 Girolamo, #11 Regal Ransom and #12 Quality Road.
Dick Jerardi is a Breeders’ Cup 360 contributor.
PICK 3
Play from Jason Shandler
Saturday, $1 Pick 3 ($56), Races 4-5-6
Sprint: #1 Zensational, #3 Fatal Bullet, #5 Gayego, #8 Capt. Candyman Can
Juvenile: #3 Beethoven, #4 Noble’s Promise, #5 D’ Funnybone, #7 Vale of York, #8 Eskendereya, #9 Aikenite, #13 Looking at Lucky
Mile: #7 Ferneley, #11 Goldikova
My ticket all revolves around Goldikova in the Mile, who I believe is the most likely horse to win a Breeders’ Cup race. She is every bit as good, if not better than, last year when she won the Mile in scintillating fashion. I think she runs huge again, but if she should get beat I believe it could be by Ferneley, an improving 5-year-old who won the Del Mar Mile and ran huge in the Woodbine Mile while losing to Ventura by a length.
In the Sprint, I like Zensational and Fatal Bullet most, but if things should fall apart late, Gayego and Capt. Canyman Can are the two most likely to pick up the pieces.
In the Juvenile, which is wide open, I am hoping to find my price horse. I think Aikentite and Eskendereya, Todd Pletcher’s horses, have decent chances to pull the upset.
Jason Shandler is a staff writer for Blood-Horse. Read his blog, Breeders’ Cup Chat or follow him on Twitter.
Friday, $1 Pick 4 Part-Wheel, Races 5-6-7-8
The all-Breeders’ Cup sequence: All with #2 with #2, #7, #8, #9 with #1, #7 for 96 units. I obviously have a 100% chance to survive leg one, a 50% chance to get through the second leg, a 90% chance to get through the third leg, and an 80% chance to hit the final leg. That’s a better than 2-to-1 chance to survive, and I have little doubt that this would pay more than 300 units.
Making a nice score in the Breeders’ Cup is not predicated on knowing who will win every race. The early pick four on Championship Saturday last year paid more than $5,000 and included the favorites Goldikova and Midshipman. I hit the thing because I played “all” in the Turf Sprint and went eight deep in the Dirt Mile, tossing the favorites. My opinions in the sequence were: Anyone could win the Turf Sprint, the longshots look good in the Dirt Mile, Goldikova is a near cinch, and only Midshipman or the fastest European could win the Juvenile. In reality, I only zeroed in on three horses (Goldikova plus two in the Juvenile), but that was enough to win a hefty amount.
The all Breeders’ Cup pick four on Championshp Friday really interests me this year since I have a similar sequence of opinions as last year: Anyone could win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies; #2 Forever Together is the most likely winner on the entire Breeders’ Cup program; the Filly and Mare Sprint is a good group, but only #2 Sara Louise, #7 Informed Decision, #8 Seventh Street, and #9 Ventura could win; the Ladies’ Classic comes down to #1 Careless Jewel or #7 Music Note.
You might be asking why I wouldn’t add more horses in the Forever Together leg if I only think I’m 50-50 to get through it, and again, it’s because of value. I would need to add three horses to get that race up to 75%, which makes the cost of the ticket 384 units. My bet quadrupled but my chance of hitting it only went up 50% and now it has to pay 800 units for it to be good value.
Ed DeRosa is News Editor of the Thoroughbred Times and the blogger behind Big Event Blog. He can also be found on Twitter.
| Breeders’ Cup 360 Analyst Picks | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| RACE | SIMON BRAY | CATON BREDAR | DONNA BROTHERS |
| Marathon | Mastery | Cloudy’s Knight | Mastery |
| Juvenile Fillies Turf | House of Grace | Lillie Langtry | Lillie Langtry |
| Juvenile Fillies | Biofuel | Beautician | Blind Luck |
| Filly & Mare Turf | Midday | Visit | Forever Together |
| Filly & Mare Sprint | Ventura | Informed Decision | Ventura |
| Ladies’ Classic | Careless Jewel | Life Is Sweet | Mushka |
| Juvenile Turf | Interactif | Pounced | Interactif |
| Turf Sprint | Diamondrella | Gotta Have Her | Square Eddie |
| Sprint | Zensational | Zensational | Gayego |
| Juvenile | Aikenite | Aikenite | Lookin at Lucky |
| Mile | Delegator | Goldikova | Goldikova |
| Dirt Mile | Mastercraftsman | Mastercraftsman | Mastercraftsman |
| Turf | Conduit | Dar Re Mi | Spanish Moon |
| Classic | Richard’s Kid | Zenyatta | Gio Ponto |
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