Perfection or Immortality?

By Jeff Siegel / 12:51 pm, 10.13.09

Zenyatta
Zenyatta ran her record to 13-13 in the Lady’s Secret (Benoit)

Here’s what we know about unbeaten Zenyatta. She will be cross-entered in both the Breeders’ Cup Classic and the Ladies’ Classic and a decision as to which race she’ll contest likely won’t be made until a few days before Breeders’ Cup entries close on Tuesday, November 3.

The safe way out, of course, would be for owners Jerry and Ann Moss and trainer John Shirreffs to protect her spotless record by matching her with virtually the same quality of competition that she’s been beating up on the past two years. If perfection is their ultimate goal, the Ladies’ Classic makes the most sense.

But perfection won’t make her a racing immortal. Beating the boys in the Classic will.

However, to believe that Zenyatta is capable of defeating the likes of Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman requires a rather dramatic leap of faith when her 2009 past performances charts are critically analyzed. She’s been facing very moderate competition, and she’s hardly crushing them. She is not earning the same glitzy speed figures as she did last year. It’s one thing to blow past Lethal Heat, another to spot Summer Bird 10 lengths and run him down. And given her deep closing style — a style that has become accentuated in her five year old season — she would without question need to produce the best race of her career to even have a chance.

Jockey Mike Smith, who would know better than anybody, believes she can. When asked if he’s had to get to the bottom of the champion mare in any race this year, his response was, “no, not even close.”

That’s the message he’ll bring when he, Shirreffs, and the Mosses have a heart to heart conversation in couple of weeks.

And when all of the pros and cons and weighed, I’m fairly confident that they’ll decide to go for the gold — and possibly horse of the year — by providing Zenyatta with the opportunity to take on her greatest challenge in what could very well be her final race.

Zenyatta, and the sportsmen that control her destiny, will lose nothing in losing. Only in not trying.

OPTIONS FOR OTHERS

There are several other horses that could fit nicely into more than one race. From what we’ve been able to ascertain, here are the fence sitters and their likely destinations:

Gio Ponti – The Classic over the Turf (even though he’d be a much shorter price in the Turf). Thge Cristophe Clement-trained colt likely has already clinched an Eclipse Award in the turf division, so he has nothing to lose in trying the Classic on a Pro-Ride surface that he showed he could handle last winter.

Einstein – The Classic over the Turf. Einstein won the Big ‘Cap last March over the Pro-Ride. We still like him better on firm grass, though.

Awesome Gem – The Classic over the Mile Turf. He won’t win either, but at least the West Point Thoroughbred partners will have a good time.

Conduit – The Japan Cup over the Turf. Because the Sir Michael Stoute-trained colt won the King George last summer, he’s eligible for a bonus worth around $1.3 million should he also capture the Japan Cup. Since the trainer also has a strong BC Turf contender in Spanish Moon, don’t be surprised if Conduit — who reportedly suffered from a mild case of colic last week — will be sent to the Far East instead.

Zacinto – The Mile over the Champions Stakes. Runner-up to Rip Van Winkle in the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, the Juddmonte colt was originally ticketed for the premier race for older horses at Newmarket this week, but Sir Michael Stoute strongly suggested to owner Khalid Abdullah that the son of Dansili be re-routed to the Mile. Since Juddmonte already has two other runners entered at Newmarket — Doctor Fremantle and Twice Over — the prince needed little convincing.

Quality Road – The Dirt Mile over the Classic. Assuming he comes — and a definite decision hasn’t yet been made — the speedy sophomore likely will shorten up to what might be his best trip after failing on two recent occasions to fully handle 10 furlongs, albeit both times on off tracks. At this stage, Quality Road needs to win a race, and the Dirt Mile undoubtedly will be less difficult than the Classic.

Girolamo – The Cigar Mile over the Dirt Mile. Godolphin already has two colts in California training for this race — Pyro and last year’s BC Juvenile winner Midshipman — so this brilliant colt can remain on dirt and around one turn before heading to Dubai for the winter.

Diamondrella – The Turf Sprint over the Mile. Recently purchased by IEAH Stable and Michael Ivarone, the Angel Penna, Jr.-trained filly showed she could handle two turns when winning the First Lady Stakes at Keeneland at a mile, but the same stable also has Court Vision for this race, so they’ll likely opt for the downhill sprint over the other option, the Filly and Mare Turf, which, at 10 furlongs, is likely out of her range.

Eskendereya – The Juvenile Turf over the Juvenile. Trainer Todd Pletcher also has the most accomplished U.S. based two-year-old turf colt in this event — Interactif — but this Giant’s Causeway colt, winner of the off-the-turf Pilgrim Stakes, is a grass monster in the making and the barn probably thinks it can win the Juvenile with Aikenite, anyway.

Rainbow View – the Ladies Classic over the Filly & Mare Turf. Assuming Zenyatta opts for the Classic, the filly version suddenly becomes winnable, and with George Strawbridge already having the defending Filly and Mare Turf champion Forever Together back for a repeat score, Strawbridge’s English juvenile champion from a year ago should be very dangerous over a synthetic surface she’s bred to love.

Ventura – The Filly and Mare sprint over the Mile. Juddmonte already will have Zacinto in the Mile, and Ventura, despite winning the Woodbine Mile against colts, seems most effective around one turn. She’ll be a short price to repeat her sparkling victory in this race last year.

BLOWOUTS

Sea the Stars officially has been retired and will not participate in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. About that time Team Valor and Gary Barber will announce whether Goodwood Stakes winner Gitano Hernando will be supplemented to the Classic, go for an easier race, or just rest up for a 4-year-old campaign. There have been references to Gitano Hernando being some kind of third rate import. He is nothing of the kind. His victory in the Goodwood, with the winners of the Kentucky Derby, Travers Stakes and Pacific Classic behind him, was thoroughly legitimate … Spanish Moon, who’ll likely represent Sir Michael Stoute’s yard in the Turf, has been banned from racing in England because he’s a bad actor in the stalls. Assistant starters in the gates aren’t permitted in England … Gayego’s victory in the Ancient Title was so visually impressive that some local observers believe the Godolphin colt will actually go favored over Zensational in the Sprint … Trainer John Sadler, who generally plays it fairly close to the vest, has made no secret of his confidence in Noble Court’s prospects for the Turf Sprint … As far as we know, Aidan O’Brien still plans to bring Septimus over for the Marathon. When last seen on the racetrack, Septimus was beaten an acre in the Melbourne Cup just about a year ago, but this is Aidan O’Brien we’re talking about, so you know he’ll be ready … Trainer Richard Dutrow already has D’ Funnybone pointing for the Juvenile, so chances are he’ll keep Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris in New York and shoot for the Remsen Stakes … Trainer John Gosden believes English-based Pounced is considerably better than the colt he saddled to victory in last year’s Juvenile Turf, Donativum.

Share
  • Print
  • Digg
  • del.icio.us
  • Facebook
  • Mixx
  • Google Bookmarks
  • Twitter
  • FriendFeed
  • MySpace
  • LinkedIn
  • StumbleUpon
  • Tumblr

Tagged , ,

4 Comments

Immortality! Perfection is nice but no one besides Hard Core handicappers remembers Personal Ensign. I know hundreds of people who remember Winning Colors, because she achieved immortality by winning the Derby. The way Careless Jewel is running she could be a complete freak. Zenyatta loses to the ladies and no one remembers anything.

Posted by Craig / 7:32 pm, 10/14/09

zenyatta should be call chicken zenyatta she never faces a caliber horse she chose her opponent if she really good face the real horse thats the reason why you never loss

Posted by junar ristorenas / 11:57 am, 10/20/09

Personally I think the best thing That could happen for Zenyatta would be to develop a “hot tendon” after her next workout and go to the shed.

Posted by billmose / 7:31 pm, 10/22/09

You do not go 13 for 13 by being a chump is zenyatta better than rachel, probably not, is she the best filly in the west coast, certainly.

Posted by briandean / 8:53 am, 10/24/09

Leave a Comment