Midnight Lute dominated the Sprint in 2007 and 2008 (Benoit)

Admit it, we’ve all done it. Something works, and instantly we swear by it as the new gold standard. The problem with instant success: It takes forever for us to let the notion go if the initial success is not followed up on.

This series of Breeders’ Cup “Lessons Learned” columns have been a collection of things that have worked, things that have blown up in smoke, and things that have given more reason to ponder. Without a doubt, for me personally, letting go of preconceived notions has to be the hardest lesson of all.

I was as big a Cherokee Run fan as anyone, having seen his win in the 1993 Derby Trial and runner-up in the 1993 Preakness in-person at both Churchill and Pimlico. When he went on to win the 1994 Breeders’ Cup Sprint, my eyes were opened to exceptional middle-distance horses who could be effective at the Sprint distance.

By 1997, I was playing this angle with religious gusto in the Sprint, going all-in on Hesabull, cutting back in distance from the Goodwood. At 15-to-1 odds and with the lead in mid-stretch, I was certain that I had backed up the Brinks truck to Breeders’ Cup riches. When Elmhurst nailed him on the wire, the double-digit place mutuel was hardly a consolation prize, but I took it. More importantly, in my mind I thought I had the inside track on the historically inscrutable Sprint puzzle for years to come.

But Wild Rush certainly wasn’t the 1998 answer, nor was Forestry in 1999, both bet at or near favoritism with my support as well. Honest Lady almost got there for me in 2000 at 31-to-1, but she, too, was beaten by a better sprinter, Kona Gold.

Since then, it’s been true sprinters completely dominating the Breeders’ Cup’s fastest flashes. The likes of Orientate, Speightstown, Thor’s Echo and Midnight Lute passing the torch. Outside of Silver Train’s score in 2005, it’s hard to find any middle-distance types to even light the Sprint tote in the past several years. Either the game has changed, or there never really was much to the theory that I thought was working so well for me in the mid-1990s.

If you’re going to embrace a particular angle of play in the Breeders’ Cup, or any big race where you can evaluate its history, the lesson learned is to find a much longer stretch of results than a year or two. Certainly everyone will be jumping on all the Europeans in this year’s Breeders’ Cup after last year’s success.

After Johannesburg’s 2001 Juvenile win at 7-1, it’s not coincidence that Aidan O’Brien’s crew returned with Hold That Tiger being bet to the third choice in the 2002 Juvenile at 5-1. It’s unfathomable to think Hold That Tiger was a shorter price than his superstar predecessor, but the public groundwork laid by Johannesburg allowed pari-mutuel lemmings to believe in Hold That Tiger the next autumn.

By the same token, when Arcangues stunned the 1993 Classic at Santa Anita at 133-1 odds, no one really considered the Europeans a threat in our main track main event. But one year later, no less than five Europeans showed up for the Classic all of the sudden, and the public didn’t let any of them go over 25-1 this time around — none finished better than seventh. In 1995, Halling was 9-1 third choice and ran dead last.

Just because it worked last year does not mean it will work this year. But it probably means you’ll get a much shorter price if lightning strikes twice.