Betting at the 2008 Breeders’ Cup (Lasko)

It’s feast or famine on racing’s richest day, and we’re not just talking about the equine and human participants. For horseplayers, both through my personal history and through those with whom I talk often, I’ve learned that you either have it, or you don’t, when playing the Breeders’ Cup.

Recognizing the roll is a critical component in playing the races. If you can bet more when you’re hot and less when you’re not, many agree that you’ve unlocked the key to success. At the Breeders’ Cup, those days steamroll and multiply given the blockbuster payouts and excessive overlays. They can also compound and go south in a hurry when you’re chasing a betting debt in one inscrutable race after another.

One of the pitfalls of Breeders’ Cup betting is not evaluating the two days ahead of time. Know where your key plays are, which races you have some clue, and which races you would need David’s slingshot to topple. As the witty Harvey Pack used to say on the NBC telecasts: “Take the trip to El Paso” when you should bypass a race. There’s no shame in sitting one out; in fact, you’ll be surprised what a fan you become again in a championship race where you’re not cussing out the jockey for going :46 2/5 early.

But make no mistake Breeders’ Cup days are not for window dressing — they are the time to actively participate. Sitting races out doesn’t mean you’ve cut your bankroll. It means you’re doubling down somewhere else where you have the all-important solid opinion.

If you’re a $30-$50 per race player, by sitting out a clueless contest, you can raise your stake to $60-$100 where you’re feeling it. That’s critical in being able to collect the hard cash when you’re right. One of the biggest mistakes horseplayers make is not getting paid when they’re right. They nail a race stone cold and are left with modest returns because they bet too many combinations, didn’t have enough weight behind their strongest opinions, or fell a horse or two short in their budget that busted them in the exotics.

Keep a few things in mind as you try to recognize the roll on Breeders’ Cup days.

You’re dealing with the widest variety of races on any race card any day of the year.

No one can be an expert on 2-year-olds, turfers, sprinters, routers and everything else under the sun. That makes it EXTREMELY tough to cold-cock the multi-race bets, where you can have three, four, five and six distinctly different kinds of puzzles to test your personal strengths/weaknesses. That’s why I’ve become a major advocate of the intra-race bets: win, exacta, trifecta, superfecta on Breeders’ Cup days. I used to go in hard on the pick threes and fours, only to get nowhere close on a leg or two and not capitalize properly on a strong opinion in one or two of the legs. Plus, by not tying up a sizable percentage of your bankroll over multiple races, you maintain some flexibility to adapt to the card as it develops.

Do not over-emphasize what you’ve seen in undercard and BC week races.

I have seen so many people jump on speed or closers because of the way they thought the track was playing, or on horses from a particular circuit because one or two ran well the day before or on the lead-in stakes. First, there’s much dispute whether a real bias can be successfully identified (much less in a race or two); and secondly you’re betting on the best horses in the world. The perceived bias had better be the strongest you’ve ever seen to make you think it’s going to put a wall up around any Grade 1 animal, much less 14 of them.

Don’t change the wagers you play, change the amount you play.

When the roll comes, don’t suddenly invest big in the pick six if that’s not your strength, or a massive super high five ticket in the finale because you’re ahead and rolling. If you don’t have any experience crafting particular tickets, your solid handicapping acumen won’t help you. You got on a roll from great handicapping, not inventing a new strategy for a wager you don’t normally play. If you’re up a few hundred or thousand, it’s time to bet the wager types at which you excel at greater numbers. Those $1 trifectas can be bought two and three times each (Remember to try and avoid the taxman and not bet $2, $3 denominations. Always play for a dollar and keep repeating for more weight; superfectas should always be bought in the lowest fractional allowed). The $20 win bettor can become a $100 win bettor in this case and be not only justified, but rewarded for confidence.

Play your opinions all the way down the wagering line.

Never let a winner pass you by because some clunker wrecked your superfecta. At the Breeders’ Cup, it’s hard to be right. When you are, get it ALL right. If you’re considering a four-horse box, you really don’t have an opinion. It’s the races where you’ve got THE key horse when you have the opinion. Bet that key horse to win, play him or her on top in the exactas, on top in the trifectas and more. When you’re right, you’re right. You’re here to connect today. Don’t fiddle around with win bets and back-wheels of the horse in case they get beat. This is not the day for “savers.” If you’re right, get paid, don’t give it away by cashing the win play but losing $22 back on the back-wheel for second. Hit the winner AND the exacta by using your horse on top of the gimmicks in addition to the win bet.

Hey, the roll may not arrive. I know it sure hasn’t for me most years. But when it does, such as 1996 at Woodbine, or 2000 and 2006 at Churchill Downs, you need to bring the hammer and leave yourself with a chance to make them the most memorable wagering days of your lifetime. That’s the beauty of betting the Breeders’ Cup. A great day lasts forever.