Dixiana Futurity Analysis

By Donna Brothers / 8:40 pm, 10.10.09

Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity Stakes (G1) / Keeneland, 10.10.09 / Download Chart (PDF)

PROS

  • A full field of 14 2-year-olds, all with the credentials to try their fate at this level.

CONS

  • Ten of 14 were trying two turns for the first time.
  • Eight of 14 were trying synthetic for the first time.
  • Six of 14 were exiting their maiden win and stepping up to Grade 1 company.
  • One of the 14 (Make Music For Me) was still maiden — albeit a wealthy maiden with $93,000 in earnings having run second to the West Coast’s early favorite for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, Looking at Lucky, twice already.

BOTTOM LINE

  • With the favorite (Backtalk) running a subpar race and finishing eighth, it is as difficult coming out of this race as it was going in to get a line on the overall level of competition here and how this group stacks up overall. The maiden, Make Music For Me, ran a respectable fourth so his race certainly validates the dominance of Looking at Lucky out west. However, the winner, Noble’s Promise, was bred top and bottom for sprinting and may have just run his best two-turn race in this first asking. Not sure that he’ll improve or even hold his current form as he continues to try two-turns and/or stretches out.
  • Second place finisher, Aikenite, exits this race with the best chance to carry good form and effort into the Breeders’ Cup. He’s a horse who is on the improve, is bred (on the dam’s side) to handle a route of ground and, in the flesh, looks like he’ll improve with more distance.
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About Donna Brothers

Author PhotoOne of the most successful female jockeys of all-time, Donna Brothers rode 11-plus years and piloted more than 1,100 winners before retiring from the saddle. Since then, she’s become a regular fixture on NBC Sports telecasts of Thoroughbred racing, providing horseback coverage and interviews for events such as the Triple Crown and Breeders’ Cup, and she continues to exercise horses daily at Churchill Downs.