Conduit with jockey Ryan Moore and Ballymacoll racing manager
Peter Reynolds (right) after the 2008 Breeders’ Cup Turf (Benoit)

I was excited to receive feedback after the first installment; for all that it came in the guise of a roasting from NPR for failing to mention Conduit, his beloved turf hero.

So, acknowledging that was pretty remiss, NPR, here are my thoughts.

First, your contention that “Conduit must have a great chance” is clearly spot-on. What struck me hardest after he passed the post last year was that he was atypical of European Breeders’ Cup winners on grass insofar as his victory was a building block in a career rather than a topping-out ceremony.

For many turf champions, a BC win has been a satisfying affirmation of greatness or, at least, consistency at the highest level — I’m thinking of Daylami, Fantastic Light, Pilsudski, Islington. Even High Chaparral and Ouija Board, both dual winners, were already established as divisional leaders prior to their initial BC victories.

By contrast, Conduit was an improver that needed a career best to win last year’s race. Happily, for those of you whose faith in the form of the race needed restoring, he has continued his steady upward curve, winning the King George (G1) with enough authority on his only try at 1 1/2 miles this year.

So last year’s winner returns to the same venue a better, stronger horse off a relatively light and focused campaign. Surely he wins again?

It may be a little less straightforward: I seem to remember similar blind faith in Six Perfections at Lone Star Park (Mile) and Ouija Board at Belmont (Filly and Mare Turf).

Let’s be clear when assessing last year’s race that Conduit owed his victory to a suicidal mid-race pace and sound tactical judgment from jockey Ryan Moore. It is well worth comparing the sectional times of the three Breeders’ Cup Turfs that have taken place at Santa Anita in 1993 (Kotashaan), 2003 (High Chaparral/Johar) and 2008 (Conduit). The early intentions of the Ballydoyle pacemaker Red Rock Canyon were evident twelve months ago when he completed the first half mile in little over :47 seconds, compared with :48 3/5 in both the 1993 and 2003 runnings. Furthermore, when stable companion Soldier of Fortune was sent to join issue at halfway, the pair ran to the mile in a blistering 1.33.86, only a tick or two outside the final time for the BC Mile itself and relative to 1.35.76 (2003) and 1.37.20 (1993).

Thus, it was simply impossible for the pace to hold up and the talented Soldier of Fortune gave way to the closers, as evidenced by the fact that the final quarter was run slower than either of the previous years cited. This allowed the economically ridden and stamina-laden Conduit to run home less slowly than his dwindling rivals: Remember that it took him what seemed an eternity to run down Eagle Mountain, a horse whose limitations had been exposed on a few occasions at the top level in Europe.

My contention is that Gio Ponti and Fame and Glory will pose a sterner challenge in terms of speed and class, and that Conduit will require an evenly strong tempo, at least, to be assured of a repeat victory. He is a wholly admirable horse, but one that lacks a potent turn of foot, hence his slightly less stellar efforts at shorter distances.

What will encourage Conduit devotees, however, is that Sir Michael Stoute is adamant that this is a horse whose physique almost ensures that he progresses well through the course of the season. In addition, Ryan Moore gave me every indication in an interview last weekend that the horse is coming to a peak ahead of his run in the Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp in a fortnight. Of course, what we must also take into account is whether a big run in that showpiece event might compromise his chance in California.

I would really welcome your thoughts as to the strength of the home challenge and, as such, the likely pace scenario in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Turf.

I’ll be checking back later in the week with thoughts on the fillies.